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For years, planners and others have raised concerns about the amount of land that urbanization occupies, especially in the United States and other developed nations. My attention was recently drawn to an estimate that 2.7% of the world's land (excluding Antarctica) is occupied by urban development. This estimate, which is perhaps the first of its kind in the world, is the product of the Columbia University Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center Gridded Population of the World and the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) and would amount to 3.5 million square kilometers.

While the scholars of Columbia are to be complimented for their ground breaking work, their estimate seems very high, especially in light of the fact that in the United States, with the world's lowest density urban areas, only 2.6% of land is urbanized. Further, the data developed for our Demographia World Urban Areas and Population Projections would seem to suggest a significant overstatement of urbanization's extent. Demographia World Urban Areas and Population Projections data are generally from national census authorities and examination of satellite photography.

The GRUMP overestimation is illustrated by the following.

GRUMP places the total of all urban extents in the United States at 754,000 square kilometers, more than three times the 240,000 square kilometers reported by the Bureau of the Census in 2000. This is despite the fact that GRUMP uses the same urbanization criteria as the Bureau of the Census. At the average GRUMP population density, most US urban areas would not even qualify as urban under the national standards used in countries such as the US, Canada, the UK and France.

The overestimation can be illustrated by Cairo, which surrounded by desert land virtually devoid of urbanization. GRUMP places Cairo's urban land area ("urban extent") at 10,900 square kilometers. Cairo is well known among demographers as one of the world's most dense urban areas. Yet the GRUMP urban density, at 1,550 per square kilometer would make Cairo no more dense than Fresno, though somewhat more dense than Portland. The Demographia Cairo urban area is estimated at 1,700 square kilometers, more than 80% smaller. The contrast between the GRUMP and Demographia land area estimates is illustrated in the figure. There are a numerous additional discrepancies of similar scope.

One problem with the GRUMP estimates is their reliance on lights at night as observed from satellites. The problem is that lights illuminate large areas and any estimates based upon them would be likely to be inflated. Documentation associated with GRUMP acknowledges this effect, which it refers to as "blooming."

But "blooming" is not the only problem. The poorest urban areas tend to have fewer lights and are thus illuminated to a larger degree than more affluent areas. The result, in the GRUMP data is that some of the project's most dense urban areas are in fact not the world's most dense. For example, low income Kinshasa (former Leopoldville), in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is indicated by GRUMP to be 40% more dense than Hong Kong. The reality is that Hong Kong is twice the density of Kinshasa, the difference being the effect of "blooming," combined with more sparse electricity consumption in the African urban area.

Demographia World Urban Areas and Population Projections accounts for more than 50% of world urbanization and includes all identified urban areas with 500,000 population or more. These urban areas cover only 0.3% of the world's land area. There is only the most limited data for smaller urban areas. However, it is generally known that smaller urban areas tend to be less dense than larger urban areas (which makes one wonder why the anti-sprawl interests have targeted larger urban areas). In the United States, the urban areas with less than 500,000 population average about one-half the density of larger urban areas. University of Avignon data indicates that the smaller urban areas of western Europe are about 60% less dense than the larger ones.

If it the US 50% less factor is assumed, then urbanization would cover approximately 0.85% of the world's land (1.1 million square kilometers).

If the European 60% less factor is assumed, then urbanization would cover 1% of the world's land (1.3 million square kilometers).

By these estimates, the GRUMP urbanization estimates would be more than 200% high.

GRUMP has contributed a useful term to the parlance of urban geography --- the "urban extent." An urban extent is simply continuous urbanization, without regard to labor markets or economic ties. For example,

The Tokyo urban extent might be considered to run from the southern Kobe suburbs, through the balance of the Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto urban area, Otsu, Nagoya, Hamamatsu, Shizuoka and through the Tokyo urban area to the northern suburbs, a distance of 425 miles (GRUMP calls the Tokyo urban extent the world's largest).

China's Pearl River Delta, with its physically connected but relatively economically disconnected, urban areas (including at least Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Guanzhou-Foshan, Zhongshan, Jiangmen, Zhuhai and Macao) is another example.

Despite its difficulties, the GRUMP project is an important advance and it is to be hoped will produce more accurate estimates in the future.

Note: The Demographia Cairo urban area is also the urban extent (the extent of continuous urban development). It includes the 6th of October new town and New Cairo, but excludes the 10th of Ramadan new town, which is physically disconnected from the Cairo urban extent.

Photograph: In the GRUMP Cairo Urban Area (by the author)

Here's three items from the Washington Post's "Top Secret America" series:

The Series: We've long known that high-security businesses warp the statistics describing Edge Cities. No matter how sophisticated the data source you go to, you find anomalies in which the numbers just wildly do not match the office buildings, retail locations and expensive homes you can plainly see. You know you're in this territory when the GPS in your car starts giving you screwy results -- because it's being jammed. Now my former Washington Post colleagues Dana Priest and William H. Arkin and a platoon of their associates have done an astounding job of lifting the veil. In their two-year investigation, "Top Secret America" -- sure to win a Pulitzer -- they've put together an authoritative data base of government and private job locations where 854,000 people with high-level clearances work. (That's one and a half times the population of the District of Columbia.) They call it "an alternative geography" of the United States, and they're right. Here's the home page for the sprawling report.

Some Numbers: Howard County, Md., has the largest secret Edge City in the United States and the numbers are eye-popping. The headquarters of the National Security Agency -- the communications intercept spooks -- is 6.3 million square feet - about the size of the Pentagon - and is surrounded by 112 acres of parking. It's on its way to 14 million square feet. (Downtown Memphis is 5 million square feet.) And that doesn't count the miles and miles of super-secure commercial office buildings housing the corporations in the NSA orbit. Finally we get more than rumors about why this is one of the richest counties in the U.S. We're talking a $20 billion payroll much of which doesn't show up in other data. In fact, most of the wealthiest counties in America turn out to have Top Secret Edge Cities.

The Map: Check out the interactive U.S. map of where the Top Secret Edge Cities are. Zoom around. These are the Edge Cities where "the extrovert is the one looking at somebody else's shoes."

California High Speed Rail officials and the Governor’s office seem to be suffering from selective hearing. Lawmakers and experts at the University of California’s Institute of Transportation continue to challenge the high-speed rail project’s viability due to precarious statistical projections on ridership and cost. One wonders if developers will reconsider upon hearing California treasurer Bill Lockyer’s recent criticisms.

Lockyer’s first major issue lies with the basics: the ability to raise enough capital from private sources needed to complete the project. The Rail Authority claims it would need $10 to $12 billion from private investment alone, although some analysts think that, like most of the monetary figures associated with the rail line, this number will ultimately grow. Investors are reluctant to fund such a risky venture, as nothing proposed in this project has proven stable or certain. If investors do indeed close their checkbooks, there is no way the Rail Authority will complete the project.

Lockyer doesn’t think selling the idea in smaller chunks would work either. He questions the willingness of anyone to buy state bonds for the HSR, even though voters approved $9.95 billion worth in November 2008.

Despite these reservations, Governor Schwarzenegger is protecting the funding promises made in the 2008 ballot measure. The Rail Authority is also ignoring the warnings of Lockyer and others. They are also trying to start building in the Bay Area in order to meet deadlines for federal funding. But the way things are going, it looks as if federal funding is all they will get. As more and more powerful people add their names to the list of skeptics, the high-speed rail line seems that much closer to complete failure.

Rather than overriding their critics and spending money they may not get, the Rail Authority should invest in consumer confidence. They need more concrete plans and more promising statistics to create a market for this line because right now, most think the project will turn out to be nothing more than a huge budgetary debacle.

Looking for a business-friendly state? You had better skip California. Extensive regulations, high taxes, and high worker’s compensation rates have made California unappealing for resident and out-of-state businesses alike in the past two years. However, according to the business relocation coach, 2010 marks an economic “emergency” as there have already been 84 instances in California of companies either closing their factories, moving their headquarters out of state, or investing heavily in another out-of-state location. This nearly doubles the 2009 total of 44 instances, and more than doubles the 2006-2008 total of 35. California is losing its economic luster at an alarming rate, which does not bode well for job seekers.

Some of the companies moving or hedging their bets by shifting operations elsewhere include Google, Apple, Genentech, Facebook, and Hilton. Orange County, Los Angeles, and Santa Clara counties have suffered the most in 2010 with 25, 19, and 16 company moves respectively. Santa Clara in particular houses some of the big tech names like Google, Hewlett Packard, and Apple. In 2009, Los Angeles had the largest number (and the only county in double digits) of company moves with 12. California is not only losing out economically, but it is also losing some of its character as the technology-hub of the US.

This exodus follows recent trends emerging during the recession. The states benefitting most from California’s high taxes and strict regulations include Texas (with 18 events), Colorado (17 events), Arizona (11 events), Nevada (10 events), and North Carolina (10 events). Increasingly, these states have established themselves as promising havens for job seekers and have fared better during these tough times.

The state that once drew thousands of hopeful migrants during the Great Depression is now stifling growth opportunities. This is a bleak and unfortunate reversal, particularly for a place struggling to stay afloat in the recession.

For years, the United States has been portrayed by both international and domestic interests as an environmental outlaw, because of its high rate of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The United States, Canada and Australia have the highest GHG emissions per capita in the world. Further, the United States has historically had the highest overall GHG emissions, until having recently been passed by China.

It is likely to come as a surprise that the US has become a model for its reduction in GHG emissions over the last decade. According to a report by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, GHG emissions per capita fell more in the United States from 2000 to 2009 than in any other area reviewed. The Agency also reported that there had been no growth in global GHG emissions in 2009.

Per capita GHG emissions fell 16% in the United States from 2000 to 2009. This is half again as large as the 11% reduction in the highest income portion of the European Union (EU-15). Among EU-15 nations for which data was provided, per capita GHG emissions were down 14% in the United Kingdom, 12% in France and Italy, and 11% in Germany. Spain, where economic reality is forcing a reduction in support for its highly touted "green" energy program, reduced per capita GHG emissions by little more than one-third the US rate, at 6%. The Netherlands achieved a 3% reduction (Figure).

In both the United States and Europe, the deep recession contributed to a reduction between 2008 and 2009. Between 2000 and 2008 (pre-recession), US GHG emissions per capita declined 9%, while EU-15 emissions declined 7%.

Canada's GHG emissions declined 9% from 2009 to 2009, while Japan's per capita GHG emissions declined at one-half the US rate (8%). Australia's emissions rose 1%, while emissions per capita rose 18% in South Korea.

GHG emissions per capita increased in all of the developing nations surveyed except for the Ukraine (-12%) and Brazil (-1%). Such increases are not surprising, as people in developing nations move from the countryside to urban areas and as they seek greater affluence.

There was more good news for the United States. Biofuel use in road freight transport was more than double that of the European Union (EU-27). This is significant because road transport volumes in the EU-27 are nearly the same as in the United States.

Photograph: Southern Greenland (by the author)

In the lead up to the G20 conference, the security costs were projected to approach a billion dollars. As high as this number sounds, sources are now speculating that the total bill could be closer to $2 billion. Shocking as that number is, the costs incurred by local businesses may have exceeded that total.

In addition to the physical damage to the hundreds of shops that were smashed in, there were major productivity losses during, and in the week before the conference. The most visible opportunity cost was the sharp decline in retail sales. According to Monaris Solutions, businesses within the security barrier saw a 28.08% decline in sales, and a 40.87% decrease in transactions. Businesses outside of the barrier experienced a 10.78% decline in sales, and a 16.43% decrease in transactions. The total city decline in sales was 9.31%, with 14.96% less transactions. This may not seem like that much, until you consider that the city has $47 billion in annual retail sales. A crude calculation puts the total retail losses in the $386 million range for the 25-27th. Given that this is a summer weekend, it is probably a low estimate.

The implicit costs to the financial sector would be difficult to tabulate. With 223,000 employees, even minor disruptions to the sector are extremely costly. Many of the large banks asked their employees to work from home for several days, which certainly caused some level of productivity costs. Many of them also had to temporarily move their trading floors outside of the downtown core. Moreover, each bank needed to prepare its employees for the inevitable disruptions during the conference. As the security boundaries shifted, and government policies to deal with the conference changed, banks were required to hold multiple meetings in preparation. Assuming each meeting lasted a half hour, and the average employee earns $20/hour (an understatement), the financial sector would have lost roughly over $2 million for every single preparatory meeting.

Unfortunately, it is impossible to calculate the full cost of the summit to Toronto businesses. The banks have been fairly quiet about their own costs, likely because of the Harper government’s strong stand against implementing a global bank tax, a move that would have devastated the global financial sector. Though there have been no public statements from the banks, there are rumors circulating that the financial sector lost at least as much as retailers. Those same rumors have it that the overall economic losses exceeded the security costs (based on the original security estimates). With nearly $400 million in retail losses alone, this seems realistic. Let’s hope this G20 experience has finally put to death the myth that hosting controversial global political meetings in major cities brings economic benefits.

If one measures a state’s popularity on the cost of U-Haul rentals, then Ohio is losing out to the sunny Florida beaches big time. The one-way rental fees for a 26-foot U-Haul truck show a significant disparity in the cost to go from Florida to Ohio and the cost to go from Ohio to Florida. The rate for going from Miami to Cleveland is $1,000 compared to $1,457 if the destination was swapped, resulting in a 45.7% premium to leave Ohio. That percentage still pales against the 50.4% premium to go from Cleveland to Tampa or the whopping 56% premium to go from Cleveland to Orlando. U-Haul is offering deep discounts for Ohio-bound travelers, which hopefully for Ohio, will attract more people.

This is not unique to Florida either. U-Haul rates to go to and from states like Texas and Pennsylvania reflect the same pattern. Some speculate that Ohio’s higher taxes are to blame for the exodus, but who knows; maybe Ohioans just want a change of scenery.

In a surprise move, the Vietnam National Assembly rejected plans proposed by the government to built a high speed rail line from Ho Chi Minh (Saigon) to Hanoi.

Some opponents expressed concern that the line would not be competitive with air service. The 900 mile route, which was to operate at up to 186 miles per hour, would take between five and six hours to make the trip between Vietnam's two principal cities. This compares to the current two hour trip by air. Concerns were expressed that this travel time, combined with fares that would need to be competitive with those of airlines would be insufficient to make the line a viable economically.

But the strongest objections were expressed with respect to the context of such a large expenditure in a developing nation. The high speed rail line would have cost an amount equal to 60% of Vietnam's gross domestic product, even before the cost overruns that have typically plagued such projects. This is akin to spending $8.5 trillion on high speed rail in the United States (more than $25,000 per capita).

National Assembly member Nguyen Minh Thuyet told the Agence France-Press that some children in the Central Highlands can only get to school by swinging on a cable across a river because they have no bridge, questioning the validity of such an expensive project in light of the nation's low income.

Photograph: Ho Chi Minh (Saigon)

Bay Area businesses beware, San Francisco is once again considering banning a common city commodity. This time it is not environmentalists, but city lawmakers who are howling for change. If San Francisco’s Commission of Animal Control and Welfare approves the proposed ordinance, it will be illegal to sell any pets in the city except for fish.

Commission Chairwoman Sally Stephens, who seems to be the voice of pet sale opposition, claims that people buy small pets without thinking and end up giving them to shelters where they are euthanized. Those looking for an animal companion would have to buy one from a different city, adopt one from a shelter, or buy one through the classifieds. While this does make it that much harder to buy a pet on impulse, San Francisco residents would still be giving up their pets to shelters in the city. It also seems that many of the animals you would buy on impulse – guinea pigs, birds, and mice – do not typically go to shelters when they become difficult to manage or forgotten.

Pet store owners around San Francisco are making a fuss as their major attractions are being threatened. Dogs can sell for a few hundred dollars or more at pet stores, and losing this income source would surely strike a blow to pet businesses. The Board of Supervisors has the final say, but pet lovers and owners around the city are piping up.

As such a compact city, San Francisco seems to want to clear out any waste they set their sights on. Yesterday it was plastic bags, today it is animals. Who knows what San Francisco lawmakers will target next?

Hat tip: Newsalert

For years, the world's busiest airports in passenger volume have been Atlanta's Hartfield-Jackson International and Chicago's O'Hare. However, there are indications that this long dominance may be about to end. According to Airport Council International data for 2009, Chicago O'Hare had fallen to 4th position, following Atlanta, London-Heathrow and Beijing Capital International Airport.

Beijing's Capital International increased its passenger volume by 17% in 2009, while European and American airports were experiencing slight declines due to the recession. Beijing's increase is more significant, because growth might have been expected to level off after the 2008 Olympics, which were held in Beijing. Between 2008 and 2009, Beijing rose from 8th in the world to 3rd, and from 20th place in 2004, when its volumes were approximately one-half the present level.

Early 2010 data (first quarter) indicates that Beijing Capital International has become the second busiest airport in the world, trailing only Atlanta. Passenger volumes were up 10.5% from a year earlier. If the current rate of growth continues, Beijing should pass Atlanta in two to three years, even if the American economy improves.

London's 130 million annual passenger traffic was the greatest of any metropolitan area in the world in 2009 (distributed among five airports). The new Conservative-Liberal Democrat government seems determined, however, to forfeit this ranking, having banned further London airport expansions to combat what it calls "binge flying."

New York was second with passenger traffic of 105 million at its three major airports, while Tokyo was third at 95 million. "Binge flying" does not seem to be a concern in Japan, where Tokyo's Haneda Airport is adding a fourth runway and will soon serve international flights again, providing competition to more distant Narita. Atlanta's single airport handles an annual passenger volume of 88 million.

Other airports in China are also growing. In the Pearl River Delta (the world's largest "mega-region," an area of adjacent urban areas), the four large airports, Hong Kong, Guangzhou and Shenzhen accommodated passenger traffic of more than 105 million in 2009. Traffic at Shanghai's Pudong and Hongqiao grew 14% and 10% respectively.

Overall Chinese air traffic is also growing rapidly. Over the past 10 years, annual passenger volumes have risen an average of more than 25%. This compares to an average annual growth rate of 3.2% in the European Union (EU-27), 1.6% in the United States and 1.1% in Japan (Figure). The US continues to be dominant in passenger volumes, at 940 billion annual passenger kilometers, compared to 560 billion in the European Union, 280 billion in China and 80 billion in Japan (data calculated from US, Europe, China and Japan national sources).