Had Joe Biden remained the Democrats’ presidential candidate, the party would have faced the prospect of a loss, even a drubbing, in November’s election. But with the President’s withdrawal from the race today, Democratic grandees have been left — most likely, if Biden’s endorsement is anything to go off — with the similarly unpopular Vice President, Kamala Harris.
While she may inject some youth into the ticket, she has a poor track record appealing to voters outside the one-party state of California. But if a second Donald Trump presidency is inevitable, perhaps the Democrats should see defeat not as “the end of democracy”, as is too often asserted, but instead as the spark for a much-needed political makeover.
Here’s the scenario that could soon unfold. Dependent on the black American caucus and the progressive Left, Harris will surely cling to Biden’s largely unpopular agenda. If anything, she is more eager than the President to embrace California-style craziness. She will push for a ban on new gas leases and propose mandates for electrical vehicles, while imposing national rent control, forgiveness of college debt, and initiatives for slavery reparations.
This could be bad news for Democrats in the long run. Given that only 15% of their voters see themselves as “very liberal”, many would exit the party in disgust. A loss to Trump, however, could force a necessary internal reevaluation — one that could lead to the kind of revival that brought the New Democrats and Bill Clinton to office three decades ago on a pro-growth, culturally moderate platform.
In contrast, one may have some pity for Trump if he inherits the throne. Unlike Biden, who came to power as the economy was rebounding from the Covid-19 pandemic, Trump will gain control as the economy starts slowing down. Indeed, JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, once seen as the Democrats’ favourite banker, has warned that inflation and interest rates will remain high, which will hamper the incoming president.
Voters tend to blame the current officeholder rather than those actually most responsible for hard times. Even our most skilled politicians — Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama — suffered early defeats as their policies failed to turn around in time before they left office. The Democrats won big in 1982, two years after the Reagan landslide, gaining 26 House seats. Similarly, Republicans trounced the Democrats in the 1994 midterms, two years after Clinton’s first victory, while in 2010 Obama suffered a similar rejection.
Some Democrats, such as Washington Monthly editor Bill Scher, still thought that they could win even with an enfeebled Biden, in part because they see — despite all evidence to the contrary — an “excellent economy”. This may seem wonderful for those who own large stockholdings or thrive as “Beltway bandits”, but this is not the reality experienced by most Americans, including young people and minorities.
Read the rest of this piece at UnHerd.
Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.
Photo: Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz via Flickr.
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