NewGeography.com blogs

Los Angeles Housing Voucher Lottery: 7 Families For Each Waiting List Place

Writing in Laist.com, David Wagner reports that the City of Los Angeles opened its Section 8 rental voucher waiting list for the first time in five years. Section 8 is the nation’s largest affordable housing (subsidized low-income housing) program in the nation. The City limits its waiting list to 30,000 families. The applications totaled 223,000, more than seven times the number of waiting list spots. The applicant families include more than 500,000 persons.

A lottery will determine which of the applications receive a place on the waiting list by December 1. It has been reported in 2021 that the average wait time for a family on the City of Los Angeles wait list was 24 months.

Housing costs (both rentals and owned housing) have skyrocketed ahead of incomes across California for decades, as land use regulation has been made more restrictive, principally through state measures (See Chapter 2, Saving California: Solutions to the state’s biggest policy problems).


Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Feudal Future Podcast: Newsom Nation - is Gavin Next?

On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by author Dan Walters and professor Lori Cox Han, to speak about the implications of a Gavin Newsom presidential run.

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More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

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Latest Research: From Chapman’s Center of Demographics & Policy, Joel Kotkin & Marshall Toplansky co-author the new report on restoring The California Dream.

If you haven’t downloaded the report, see it here

Visit Our Page: www.TheFeudalFuturePodcast.com

Support Our Work

The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.

Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

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Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

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This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

The Future of Cities - AEI Event

On October 18, AEI’s Ryan Streeter discussed the changing global urban demographics with a panel of contributors to the forthcoming volume The Future of Cities (AEI, 2023). The panel began by addressing the need for a new perspective on cities, particularly after cities recover from the pandemic.

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Learn more about this event at AEI

Feudal Future Podcast: Progressive Conservatism

On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Francis H Buckley, Foundation Professor at George Mason University, to speak about progressive conservatism.

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More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

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Latest Research: From Chapman’s Center of Demographics & Policy, Joel Kotkin & Marshall Toplansky co-author the new report on restoring The California Dream.

If you haven’t downloaded the report, see it here

Visit Our Page: www.TheFeudalFuturePodcast.com

Support Our Work

The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.

Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Follow us on LinkedIn

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism

Sign Up For News & Alerts

This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

Feudal Future Podcast: The State of Consumer Thinking & the U.S. Economy

On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Marshall Toplansky and Joel Kotkin are joined by Gallup's senior editor, Jeff Jones to discuss US society and economy and the state of the consumer.

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More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch the Video

New Report: From Chapman’s Center of Demographics & Policy, Joel Kotkin & Marshall Toplansky co-author the brand new report on restoring The California Dream.

If you haven’t downloaded the report, see it here

Visit Our Page: www.TheFeudalFuturePodcast.com

Support Our Work

The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.

Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Follow us on LinkedIn

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism

Sign Up For News & Alerts

This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

San Francisco Loses Another 39,000 Taxpayers

Since the days of the Gold Rush, California has been a magnet for those seeking wealth. A backwater barely a century ago, with just over 3 million residents compared to nearly 40 million today, the Golden State established dominance over everything from agriculture and film to space travel and the internet.

But new data suggests that the tide may be turning, and a rich hegira is afoot.

Researchers found that 39,000 San Franciscans who had filed federal tax returns for 2018 had moved out of the city before filing 2019 returns, taking away a net of $7 billion in income in one year. A soon-to-be released report from the San Francisco Business Times, sources tell me, will see a similar phenomenon in Silicon Valley.

Once able to hold onto its rich, the Golden State seems to be following the course of high-tax places like New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Connecticut. For years, these cities and states have been oozing billions in tax revenues as wealthy residents fled to the likes of Texas, Florida, Arizona, the Carolinas and Tennessee. While California still lags behind New York State in the money-losing sweepstakes, it is catching up: in 2020 the state lost $17.8 billion in tax revenue, with the loss spreading into the Bay Area, whose tech-rich economy historically kept the state solvent.

Read the rest of this piece at UnHerd.


Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and Executive Director for Urban Reform Institute. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.

Public Policy Conference on Water Abundance at Chapman University

The specific aim for the hot topic of water abundance is to hold this one-day conference September, 15, 2022 hosting experts from industry, business, and academe to speak on the nuts and bolts of water shortages and the significant and real impact water issues have on our communities.

California policy makers seem to focus a great amount of energy on housing affordability and homelessness issues, which are extremely important, but forget to include related relevant and vital water issues. Lawns are shrinking as our ability to care for lawns and landscape declines due to water shortages, which are literally going down the toilet. Desalinization will likely increase and will be expensive to operate and the price of water will increase to unsustainable levels causing more and more Californians to consider moving to more affordable (and sane) states with better policies and practices. Water is probably the hottest and least understood issue affecting Californians now more than ever

Thursday September 15, 2022: 8:30AM - 5:00PM

Learn more and register

Feudal Future Podcast: The State of the Economy

On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by President Emeritus of Chapman University, Jim Doti, to discuss the state of the US economy and the recession.

Watch this episode

Related Report:

From Chapman’s Center of Demographics & Policy, Joel Kotkin & Marshall Toplansky co-author the brand new report on restoring The California Dream.

If you haven’t downloaded the report, see it here

Visit Our Page: www.TheFeudalFuturePodcast.com

Follow us on LinkedIn

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism

Sign Up For News & Alerts

This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

Step Aside NASA, Elon Musk Is In Charge Now

NASA’s recent decision to scrub their big moon flight — with rescheduling weeks away — is yet another illustration of how this once mighty federal agency has lost its way. It is already 2022 and the space agency has failed to send another person on the moon for a half century. It is far from tackling the more critical project of visiting Mars.

So with NASA locked in bureaucracy, the momentum has shifted to private industry, which increasingly dominates the burgeoning space industry. Here there is a parallel with what historian J. H. Parry called the “Age of Reconnaissance” in which the initial moves for the creation of the modern world economy were state-sponsored, but the development of the global shipping and the establishment of mercantile colonies was private. Many of the boldest explorers of that era were figures like Sir Walter Raleigh and Sir Francis Drake, privateers seeking profits as well as personal glory.

We are now entering the “Commercial Space Age”, replacing the era of state-led exploration. Today exploration is being driven by billionaires like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson, and a host of young companies like Space X, Relativity Space, Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin and Rocket Lab, which recently announced a mission to explore the gases of Venus.

Government is still a large player in countries as diverse as India, Japan, Russia and Israel. China, which is considering a mile-long spaceship, will not likely allow entrepreneurs to lead its dreams of a galactic mandarinate. But in the West, the drive will not be led to NASA, suffers from what author and space expert Rand Simberg notes calls “risk aversion”.

The reasons for the rise of privateers resonates with that of the sea-going privateers — the lure of lucre. The government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates that the space industry contributes approximately $200 billion to the U.S. economy and employs 354,000 people today. New research sees that number growing substantially, and projects the global space economy will be worth $1.0 trillion by 2040. This unscripted opportunity, of course, can expect opposition from the green progressives who dub it just a reflection of capitalism’s flawed obsession with growth.

Read the rest of this piece at UnHerd.


Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and Executive Director for Urban Reform Institute. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.

The Democrats’ Green Agenda is Hurting Californians

The once-great state of California is now in a dire condition. With a heatwave now in full force, Governor Gavin Newsom is preparing to cut energy use, which may result in blackouts, brownouts and water rationing.

How did this happen? Ask any of the state’s legacy media, Democrats, and big green non-profits and the answer you’ll get is “climate despair”. But this does not tell us the whole story. Indeed, a key reason for California’s energy shortfall is the state’s harmful green policies; Jerry Brown’s plans to rebuild the state’s water capacity, for example, elicited a hostile green response from a state commission that refused to consider new dams or desalinisation, let alone spending money on already voter-approved new water storage projects. They are even pressuring Washington to demolish four dams in northern California for not being environmentally pure enough.

A similar dunderheadness extends to energy. For the last twenty years, the state has looked toward “green” energy — solar and wind — as the sole acceptable energy source. But despite billions spent, the state continues to struggle with the intermittent nature of solar and wind power. In order to prevent a total electricity shortfall, Governor Newsom — faced with a potentially devastating energy shortage this summer — was forced to reprieve the Diablo Canyon, the state’s last remaining nuclear plant. He has also allowed some gas plants to remain open.

Read the rest of this piece at UnHerd.


Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and Executive Director for Urban Reform Institute. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.