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Feudal Future Podcast: America Under Biden's New Tax Plan

On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Hank Adler, Associate Professor of Accounting for Chapman University, and Steven Malanga, City Journal’s senior editor, to discuss Biden's new tax plan.

Hank Adler was in public accounting for thirty-four years, the last twenty as a tax partner at Deloitte & Touche. He joined the faculty of Chapman University in 2003. Mr. Adler has served on several corporate and community boards of directors. His research has been published by The Wall Street Journal, Tax Notes, Prentice Hall and Tax Magazine. His interests include theories of taxation and board governance.

Steven Malanga is the George M. Yeager Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and City Journal’s senior editor. He writes about the intersection of urban economies, business communities, and public policy. Malanga is the author of The New New Left: How American Politics Works Today (2005); The Immigration Solution: A Better Plan than Today’s (2007), coauthored with Heather Mac Donald and Victor Davis Hanson; and Shakedown: The Continuing Conspiracy Against the American Taxpayer (2010).

[ 3:17] High Taxes and California

[ 6:45] The concentration of wealth in California

[16:30] Biden's porposal on capital gains

[29:08] Entrepreneurial growth in America

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Related:

Learn more about the Feudal Future podcast.
Learn more about Marshall Toplansky.

Learn more about Joel Kotkin.

Learn about Hank Adler.

Learn about Steven Malanga.

Join the Beyond Feudalism Facebook group.
Read the Beyond Feudalism report.
Leran about Joel's book, The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.

Urban Density and Covid Death Rates: Update Through April 2021

The latest death rates as of April 30, 2021 from COVID-19 are displayed by US county urban density in Figure 1. This analysis is based on data reported by usafacts.org.

Death rates remain at or below the national death rate in counties with urban densities of 1,000 to 5,000 per square mile or below (Figure 2). These counties have the low to medium urban population densities characteristic suburban areas and account for 81% of the nation’s population (267 million out of a total population of 328 million).

All categories of counties with urban densities exceeding 5,000 per square mile have more than their population proportionate share of COVID-19 deaths. Figure 3 illustrates the fatality rates by urban population density category.

Despite considerable press coverage of fatality rates in rural areas, the fully rural counties (without urban areas), death rate remains 14% above the national average, virtually the same as at the end of 2020.

Higher COVID-19 death rates are associated with higher urban densities with their widespread overcrowding, especially in insufficiently ventilated, overcrowded enclosures, such as in offices, elevators, transit, retail establishments and housing. This leads to higher exposure densities, because the intensity and duration of risky contacts is likely to be greater. Economic activity in the nation’s largest and densest urban cores (central business districts) is a small fraction of normal, as a result of strict lockdowns.


Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Urban Containment Policy and Housing Affordability in Ottawa

The city of Ottawa is updating its Official Plan. Under consideration are expanding the urban boundary (urban growth boundary) and strengthening of its intensification (densification)policy. These strategies are components of urban containment policy. This report examines the relationship between urban containment policy and housing affordability from an international perspective. For the purposes of this report, urban containment policy includes growth management, compact city policy, intensification and any measures that can materially impact the cost of land or housing by rationing or prohibiting greenfield land development (such as urban growth boundaries and intensification mandates).

The Frontier Centre for Public Policy has just released Urban Containment Policy and Housing Affordability by Wendell Cox, a senior fellow with the Frontier Centre. This report examines the relationship between urban containment policy and housing affordability.

In the past two decades there has been growing concern about the deterioration in housing affordability across Canada. From 2000 to 2015, average house prices had risen three times that of before-tax average household incomes. This issue is not isolated to Canada; there has been a significant decline in housing affordability in several countries including Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Urban containment policy has been strongly associated with higher house prices relative to incomes. This report also highlights the indirect consequences associated with urban containment, such as higher poverty rates and stunted economic growth.

To read this insightful paper, visit the Frontier Centre for Public Policy website: www.fcpp.org or Click Here.

This piece first appeared on Frontier Centre for Public Policy.


The Frontier Centre for Public Policy is an independent, non-profit organization that undertakes research and education in support of economic growth and social outcomes that will enhance the quality of life in our communities. Through a variety of publications and public forums, the Centre explores policy innovations required to make the prairies region a winner in the open economy. It also provides new insights into solving important issues facing our cities, towns and provinces. These include improving the performance of public expenditures in important areas such as local government, education, health and social policy.

2020 Census: Predictable California, Surprising New York and New Jersey

The US Census Bureau announced national, state and District of Columbia 2020 Census population totals yesterday. The big story in the media was the changes in Congressional apportionment, which are detailed later in this article.

Note: This article summarizes the first results of the 2020 census (national, states and DC). A table at the end of the article provides 2020 census figures, change from 2010, percentage change and comparison to expected, along with rankings in each category.

The big stories, from a demographic rather than a political perspective were (in my judgment) in California, New York and New Jersey, Texas and Florida, as well as the Mountain West.

California, Texas and Florida

First, as predicted, the California malaise continued. For the second Census in a row, California placed second after Texas in total population gain. Texas gained 4.0 million residents, while California gained 2.3 million. The Texas lead of 1.7 million nearly doubled compared to its 900,000 lead between 2000 to 2010. But there’s more. Florida also led California over the last census period by 450,000. California had added the largest number of residents in every census from 1930 through 2010.

New York and New Jersey

But the big surprise is New York, in which the Census Bureau was estimating an increase of about 75,000 residents between 2010 and 2019. The newly reported census figure for New York was up 823,000 from 2010, This more than doubles New York’s 2000-2010 gain.

There’s good reason to believe that the unexpected New York increase will be contained in the New York metropolitan area. New Jersey, much of which is included in the New York metropolitan area, also had a 2020 census reported population much higher than expected. Through 2019, the Census Bureau estimated that New Jersey’s population had risen just over 100,000 from 2010. The new 2020 estimate of 9.82 million is nearly 500,000 greater than in 2010.

It will be interesting to see the distribution of the higher population when figures are available

Utah, Idaho and the Top Five Proportionate Gainers

Meanwhile, the stars in proportionate population growth were in the Mountain West. Utah led with an 18.2% increase. Idaho was second at 17.3%. Despite its huge population, Texas slipped into the number 3 position, at 15.9%. North Dakota, in the Great Plains, added 15.0%, with its more than 100,000 increase being more the state gained from 1920 to 2010. Mountain West Nevada placed 5th with a 15.0% increase.

States Losing Population

The largest loss, at 3.2% was in West Virginia. Mississippi (minus 0.2%) and Illinois (minus 0.1%) also lost population

Changes in Apportionment

Based on the new census counts six states will gain seats in Congress. Texas will gain two seats, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon will each gain one. Seven states will lose one seat apiece, including California, for the first time since becoming a state in 1850. Illinois, Michigan, New York (despite the unexpected gain), Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia will also lose seats.

View/download the Table of 2020 Census First Results (PDF)


Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Feudal Future Podcast — Education Exposed: Learning in a Post-COVID World

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Dr. Roxanne Greitz Miller, Vice Provost for Graduate Education and the Interim Dean of the Attallah College of Educational Studies.

A member of Chapman's faculty since 2005, Dr. Miller holds the rank of tenured full professor with a joint appointment to Schmid College of Science and Technology. In addition to her teaching at the undergraduate, masters, and doctoral levels, Dr. Miller has served as principal or co-principal investigator on state and federal research grants representing more than $3.5 million in funding and has published numerous refereed articles, book chapters, and comprehensive historical abstracts. Her research centers on teacher professional development, the home-to-school connection, and STEM education. She serves as the immediate past chair of the Small Colleges Special Interest Group of the Professional and Organizational Developers (POD) Network and served as both the Division K Teacher Education Program Co-Chair for the American Educational Research Association (AERA) from 2013-2016 and the contributing editor to NSTA’s Science Scope journal from 2005-2009.

[2:40] Challenges facing the education system post-COVID

[5:34] The Effects of Learning Loss

[13:45] Are we raising consumers of content?

[23:58] Demographic shifts and access to information in the college system

[31:00] Future of the university systems

This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

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More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

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Related:

Learn more about the Feudal Future podcast.

Learn more about Marshall Toplansky.

Learn more about Joel Kotkin.

Learn more about Dr. Roxanne Greitz Miller.

Join the Beyond Feudalism Facebook group.

Read the Beyond Feudalism report.
Learn about Joel's book, The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.

More Londoners Turning to Cars

In an article by Edward Thicknesse, City A.M. reports that car use is rising in London, home of one of the high-income world’s best urban transit systems. Excerpts follow:

“New figures from Close Brothers Motor Finance, shared exclusively with City A.M., show that over a fifth of Londoners – 21 per cent – are now more likely to buy a car sooner than they had previously planned.”

“Seán Kemple, managing director of Close Brothers Motor Finance, told City A.M. that Londoners were now turning their back on Tube and bus travel.”

“With people urged to avoid public transport as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, the UK has seen a resurgence in private car use over the last 12 months.”

Read the entire article at: Exclusive: Covid-19 drives Londoners behind the wheel sooner than planned.

Feudal Future Podcast — The Future of Africa's Middle Class

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Bheki Mahlobo, Research Assistant at the Centre For Risk Analysis and Hugo Kruger, structural engineer and specialist in African economics.

[2:44] By 2050, 40% of the world’s population will be living in Africa

[6:59] Pros and Cons of Africa’s diversity

[12:45] Chinese model vs Democratic model

[33:00] Does Africa have a model for the future?

This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

Listen on Apple Podcast

Listen on Stitcher

Listen on Spotify

More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch Episode on Youtube

Related:

Learn more about the Feudal Future podcast.

Join the Beyond Feudalism Facebook group.

Read the Beyond Feudalism report.
Learn about Joel's book, The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.

Housing Affordability in the Major Russian Metropolitan Areas, 3rd Quarter 2020

The Institute for Urban Economics presents the research on Housing Affordability in the major Russian metro area (as of the 3rd quarter 2020).

Despite economic distress and incomes drop housing prices displayed a strong positive trend in 16 out of 17 major metro markets in Russia.

Actually in the pandemic crisis housing markets are getting more influenced by the overall financial situation as well as by fundamental economic factors.

The price growth was encouraged among other reasons by the state program on the provision of subsidies for the mortgage interest rates accompanied by decline of savings yields.

Read/download the report here

Compare Electricity Rates by State

Compare energy costs in your area with a tool from SaveOnEnergy®. Energy rates vary depending on where you live. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) tracks electricity prices by state. The most recent reports from the EIA show the average residential electricity rate in the U.S. is 12.80 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh).

SaveOnEnergy® provides customers with competitive energy plans from top providers, focusing specifically on the Texas deregulated energy market. They've developed a comparison tool that is updated monthly on electricity rates by state: https://www.saveonenergy.com/electricity-rates/

The Way You Move: Author Joel Kotkin on Migration Trends and the Future of CIties

Joel Kotkin joins Spencer Levy on The Weekly Take to discuss current migration trends and the future of cities.

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Related:

The Death of the American City

Why More Americans Should Leave Home and Move to Other States