Donald Trump’s tariff blitz is not exactly making friends with long-time allies, economists, or the libertarian, free trade Right. His approach has made him persona non grata at publications such as National Review and the Wall Street Journal. Yet although the president wields the tariff stick like a madman swatting flies, there is more logic to his approach than one might glean from much of the press.
Fundamentally, Trump’s tariff policy is an attempt, albeit crude, to reverse decades of unfair trade relations, most notably with Europe. His focus is to force the EU, whose trade policies he has labelled an “atrocity”, to reform its protectionist system, under which tariffs on US-made cars are by some counts four times higher than the equivalent American tariffs on European cars. The situation is similar in such sectors as food, beverages and other agricultural products. In some areas, American products sold in Europe are frequently taxed at 30 per cent or more.
As the historian Michael Lind has pointed out, tariffs have long been a tool in the arsenal of both advanced and developing countries. And they still are. Today, the EU imposes high tariffs on electric vehicles made in China. Other countries, including rising power India, have levied tariffs of 70 to 100 per cent on electric vehicles from China and elsewhere. Few Canadians recognise that Canada, beneficiary of a $100 billion merchandise trade surplus with the US last year, has been highly protectionist and for a long time. Canada recently levied a 100 per cent tariff on imported Chinese EVs and a 25 per cent surtax on Chinese steel and aluminium.
To deal with Trump’s policies, America’s traditional allies need to recognise that the greatest threat to the West is not American tariffs but China’s massive drive to dominate the market in manufactured goods in virtually every industry. In the US, notes an EPI study, the growth of China’s trade deficit cost roughly 3.7 million jobs between 2001 and 2018.
Until recently, multinational corporations and financial markets have been remarkably untroubled by Beijing’s stated aim by 2050 of becoming the leading global superpower. But those in the public realm have to take a longer range view that recognises that the West’s greatest long-term challenge lies in relentless Chinese mercantilism.
This West’s trade disadvantage with Beijing extends from the most prosaic to the cutting-edge. During the pandemic, the US found itself dependent on China, the source of the affliction, even for the most basic medical supplies. “Why can’t the greatest economy in the history of the world produce swabs, face masks and ventilators in adequate supply?” asked Lawrence Summers, the former head of President Obama’s National Economic Council, on social media on March 21 2020.
America’s inability to produce even basic goods has not fundamentally altered since. The generally anti-Trump media complains how companies cannot even source screws in the United States. Although chief executives and libertarian economists may see this as a reason to keep the floodgates open, a rational person might suspect that an America that cannot produce even such simple goods will not long lead the world.
But Chinese dominance is also spreading to the most critical sectors. In 2023, it consumed roughly half of the world’s steel and emerged as one of the world’s largest automobile producers – electric cars largely powered by coal play a key role. It has also invested heavily to take over the aerospace industry from both Boeing and Europe’s Airbus. It has grown rapidly in sectors like semiconductors, batteries, airplanes, and automotive parts, and now accounts for more than half of all world shipbuilding. Unlike Japan in the 1980s, whose growth threatened American industries, China’s rise also threatens America’s basic ability to produce advanced military goods.
Once this is understood, it seems fairly insane for Europeans and the UK to be criticising the United States while continuing to turn a blind eye to China. Britain’s Keir Starmer’s attempt to cosy up to China in order to “Trump proof” his realm seems the road to ever great irrelevancy, although perhaps his Labour Party can benefit in its drive to curb free speech from the censorship masters in Beijing.
European leaders need to realise that Trump’s desires are not revolutionary, but similar to their own: if you want to do business in our country, create jobs and production here. This is not only reliant on getting key trade partners to reduce their protective barriers but to force companies, like Honda, to scrap plans for shifting production of new models to Mexico and instead make them in Indiana. Both Eli Lilly and chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor have already been persuaded to invest billions in the United States, when their products in the past could easily be shipped in from abroad.
Of course many businesses – notably those with strong Chinese supply links – will be reluctant to accept that the current economic regime is over. But others are now seeking out more domestic suppliers. McKinsey surveyed supply chain executives and found consistent concern that supply chains are too vulnerable to international disruption.
Rather than rant, European, UK and Canadian political leaders need to push for negotiations aimed at equalising tariff barriers and look for ways to build a reinvigorated economic and security alliance. Trump, after all, is a committed dealmaker, and perhaps can be persuaded to ratchet down his demands and give countries, including his own, time to adjust.
Trump will, and rightfully so, work to unravel existing trade barriers, and recalibrate relations by ending nearly 80 years of now unsustainable American economic and security protection. America’s president may be half-mad, but our friends abroad also need to realise that, without a strong tie to America, they would likely be reduced to little more than Chinese vassal states.
Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas in Austin. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.
Trump's threatened tariffs against Canada have sparked more than just economic anxiety—they've triggered a profound identity crisis among our northern neighbors. Joining Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are John Kay (Quillette) and Rob Roberts (National Post), who offer razor-sharp insights into how this diplomatic tension is reshaping Canadian self-perception.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has become one of the most controversial initiatives of the Trump administration, but what does it actually represent? We're joined by Shawn Steel, National Committeeman for the Republican National Committee, and Professor Luke Nichter, historian at Chapman University, to explore the deeper meaning behind this government restructuring effort.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
For Jewish college students, Chabad is more than just a social organization—it's a community of inclusion and belonging.
When I embarked on a ten-day long trip to Montreal, I did not expect to end up sitting in a plastic chair eating a free meal of Israeli food from a styrofoam plate at McGill University. My boyfriend of the time had signed us up– we were low on money and knew that Chabad would give us free food. I was hesitant. We didn’t know anyone at McGill– wouldn’t it be awkward to just walk into a random school building and sit down for a Shabbos meal with complete strangers? This, however, proved not to be the case. Upon walking in, we were greeted warmly by the Rabbi, his family, and a healthy group of about fifty students. People made room for us at the tables and we spent the meal telling each other our life stories and discussing the torah portion of the week. Even though I was miles away from New York, I felt right at home.
This experience was not singular. My boyfriend, who went to school at Indiana University, had introduced me to Chabad at his college the year before. When I would visit, he would take me to the Chabad house on Friday nights. IU’s Jewish community is quite large with a lively, friendly, and accommodating Chabad to match. At Indiana, Chabad is more than just an organization– it’s a lifestyle. Events range from Torah study to parties to family-style dinners. The Chabad there has greatly catered to their audience by often collaborating with Jewish greek life organizations through philanthropy and volunteer work. I have several Jewish friends at IU, all of whom are either on the board of the organization or regularly attend events. For many, it has placed Judaism at the forefront of their lives, which for some is a new and often unexpected change from their life before.
What is to be said about this Chabad takeover? Why Chabad as compared to other organizations such as Hillel or SSI (Students Supporting Israel)? The answer lies in Chabad’s main goal to meet students where they are. This strategy is both compelling and effective. Although Chabad is an orthodox sector of Judaism, they don’t require students to climb to their level, but actually encourage them to remain where they are. They focus on the importance of simply showing up.
Over 3,500 Chabad-Lubavitch institutions exist in more than 85 countries. The movement originated in the 18th century in Russia, stemming from persecution that leaders of the movement faced when trying to keep the Torah alive. Chabad’s official website states that the meaning behind Chabad is to care for the “spiritual and material needs of all Jews.”
From this mission statement came the establishment of the Chabad House, influenced by Baal Shem Tov, whose teachings focus on the joy of faith through trusting and loving one’s soul rather than their outer being. Even though the leaders of Chabad know they are oftentimes more religious than a majority of their community, their place is not to judge but rather to accept with open arms. For college students, this acceptance is empowering and extremely appealing– students can be a part of a community that doesn’t necessarily require anything of them. Chabad welcomes all Jewish folk into their home, regardless of degree of faith or political belief. Membership comes simply from being part of the tribe.
To an outsider, this intermingling of individuals from different sectors of the Jewish religion may appear strange. But at its core, this act is a fundamental pillar of the Jewish religion, and something that has kept us alive and afloat for so many years.
Chabad is an example of how to effectively build a community that supports and gauges the interest of young college-age people. While the Chabad movement may be perceived by some as promulgating archaic ideas, it has instead transcended the traditional inward-looking boundaries of the Hasidic movement and offered a common place for the entire Jewish community. The Chabad House is an invaluable place of asylum for Jewish students and a source of help and support in a post-October 7th world.
Hannah Kotkin is a junior at Sarah Lawrence College in Bronxville, NY.
Keeping the Dream Alive for the Next Generation The future of California’s economy depends on Latino communities. This stark reality emerges vividly in our special town hall session recorded at the Cheech Collection for Chicano Art in Riverside, where experts gathered to discuss findings from “El Futuro es Latino,” a groundbreaking research project from Chapman University.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
Dive into the compelling world of populism in our latest podcast episode where we engage with thought leaders Ryan Streeter and Karl Zinsmeister. With multiple perspectives surrounding the rise of populism, this episode unpacks what it means for the future of American governance and society at large. Discussing the resurgence of populism, our guests present arguments on how it can serve as a counter to the elite's dominance, spotlighting the voices of the working and middle class as critical elements in shaping America's future.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
Is California losing its status as a global innovation powerhouse? Join us for a compelling conversation with Dr. Ken Murphy as we explore the shifting dynamics of California’s economic landscape. We question whether the iconic tech hub is maintaining its edge or if it’s at risk of devolving into a neo-feudalist economy. While Silicon Valley continues to thrive, other regions like Los Angeles and Sacramento face significant hurdles. Dive deep into the challenges of remote work, high operational costs, and regulatory burdens that could threaten California’s standing in high-tech industries.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
Discover why building a home in California now costs over $1.2 million per unit as we navigate the maze of the state's housing crisis with Gary London and Jennifer Hernandez. These experts shed light on the staggering decline in permits for single and multifamily homes.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
What if AI could transform the way we learn, making education more engaging and impactful? Join us as we sit down with Ramit Varma, CEO and co-founder of Breakout Learning, to explore this provocative idea.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
“The government on Thursday essentially backed a bill on the ‘start of a process of Armenia’s accession to the European Union’ drafted by several political and civic groups, which collected around 60,000 signature in support of the measure.
“The EU has expressed strong political support for Armenia’s democracy on various occasions,” Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said during a weekly cabinet meeting in Yerevan. “The EU has expressed its willingness and has in fact been involved in ensuring a security environment around Armenia.”
Mirzoyan also recalled Pashinian’s 2023 statement that Armenia is “ready to be as close to the EU as the EU deems possible.”
A complication is that Armenia is presently a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), In reaction to the Armenian announcement, the Russian government responded:
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk reacted swiftly, saying that the Armenian government’s decision signaled Yerevan’s desire to withdraw from the EEU, which Armenia chaired last year.
Commenting on the Armenian government’s decision earlier on Thursday, Overchuk said that the EU and the EAEU are incompatible, in particular, because “both unions assume the absence of customs borders and the free movement of goods, services, capital and workforce,” Interfax reported.
“We view the start of Armenia’s discussion on the bill launching the process of joining the European Union as the commencement of Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU,” the Russian government’s press service quoted Overchuk as saying in a statement.
Obviously, this is likely to be a long process, but it is notable that it appears to have begun.
Infinite Suburbia is the culmination of the MIT Norman B. Leventhal Center for Advanced Urbanism's yearlong study of the future of suburban development. Find out more.
Authored by Aaron Renn, The Urban State of Mind: Meditations on the City is the first Urbanophile e-book, featuring provocative essays on the key issues facing our cities, including innovation, talent attraction and brain drain, global soft power, sustainability, economic development, and localism.
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