There have been reports of rising Covid-19 infection rates in rural areas and even “surges,” such as here and here.
Many of these reports fail to note the most important statistic of all with respect to rural areas --- that, even with the recent increases and surges, rural Covid death rates remain below the national average. There are 703 counties in the United States that are completely rural (based on 2010 Census Bureau data), with no urban population. As of last Friday (October 24), the Covid death rate in these counties was 0.500 per 100,000 population. This is about 30% below the national rate of 0.676 per 100,000 (Figure 1 and 2). This analysis is described in “Perspective: US Covid-19 Deaths and Urban Population Density.”
All of the other counties in the nation have areas defined by the Census Bureau as urban, ranging from little under one percent to 100 percent.
Urban density is important. Covid infections and deaths are associated with higher urban densities. This is not because population density is a problem in itself. It is rather that in high urban densities it is more difficulty to avoid higher exposure densities, because the intensity and duration of risky contacts is likely to be greater. These areas are often characterized by worrying overcrowding from insufficiently ventilated enclosed spaces, such as elevators, transit, offices and public buildings. Social distancing alone is not enough. According to The New York Times: Small, crowded, enclosed spaces are petri dishes for the coronavirus. An additional problem in higher density residential areas is overcrowded apartments, often necessary because lower income households often cannot afford detached houses with yards in which kids can play. There is an important poverty connection.
The newest data continues to show that Covid fatality rates are much higher in counties with the highest urban densities. Counties with over 10,000 persons per square mile have from just under four to over six times the rural county death rate. The rural counties account for 28% fewer deaths proportionally than their population.
Counties with urban densities of less than 5,000 persons per square mile have a smaller proportion of Covid deaths than their population share. Above 5,000 persons per square mile, Covid deaths are proportionately higher than population shares (Figure 3).
Similar relationships are evident elsewhere, such as in the United Kingdom and Japan.
At the same time, however, the higher density counties have made substantial progress in controlling COVID infections and deaths. This is very good news. At least in part, this has been made possible by lockdown strategies that have led to huge decreases in transit ridership, high rise downtowns with largely empty offices and limits on elevator occupancy. The real question will be how long it will take for to return to normal, especially in the densest areas, which have been the hardest by lifestyle interruptions (see: Escape from New York).
COVID-19 presents great challenges to Northwest Arkansas (NWA) as it does to every community, but the region is in strong standing to weather this global pandemic.
Ensuring it does so requires leveraging – and enhancing – the region’s economic, social and demographic strengths while addressing its weaknesses.
To generate such an economic recovery strategy, Heartland Forward (HF) has undertaken an extensive and detailed analysis of the NWA region’s strengths, challenges and opportunities. Our team has arrayed and assessed comprehensive data on its economy and industries, its small businesses and startup ecosystem, talent base, changing demographic composition and quality of place that stems from its arts, culture and recreation efforts and initiatives to develop a robust strategy for post-COVID-19 recovery.
We supplemented these details with interviews and focus groups with real people living in NWA and representing each of these core sectors and communities to provide in-depth background into what is happening on the ground in NWA.
Before the crisis hit, our assessment indicates that the region was performing well . . . excelling in population growth, job and wage growth and other vital metrics.
NWA ranked:
fourth in population growth of the more than 100 U.S. metro areas with more than 500,000 people since 1990,
third in job growth, and
second in annual average pay gains among medium-size metropolitan areas (i.e., populations of 500,000 to 999,999) between 2013 and 2018.
On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by guest Kyle Harper, a professor of classics at the University of Oklahoma. Their discussion looks to the past, particularly the fall of Rome to help understand the problems of today. Kyle’s book, The Fall of Rome takes a look at infectious disease as part of the destruction of Rome.
Second century Romans lived in an urban society with regular intercontinental exchange that utilized the Indian Ocean, Silk Roads, and the Sahara. There’s also a randomness to evolutionary events that combine with the risk factors of globalization that create viruses that can spread rapidly across humans. While density can be a factor in the spreading of infectious disease, given the interconnectedness of the global economy, density makes less of a difference today than it may have in the past. Kyle stresses that both density and connectivity matter. To the disease, he explains, we’re just a host, anything we do that changes their evolutionary prospects affects them. Every parasite has to combat healthy immune systems and travel from host to host. Respiratory pathogens take advantage of the fact that we live in such a connected way.
From studying medieval and Roman problems, there are certainly lessons to take away for the modern pandemic and political age. Enlightenment science and the rise of germ theory and public health are part of lifting us from the oppression of infectious disease. We don’t learn from their handling of the disease, because they didn’t have the knowledge, science, or infrastructure to respond well. However, it can help us to be aware of threats and the biological realities of our universe. Historically, the COVID was bound to happen, will happen again, and may be much worse. Kyle stresses that one take away should be learning from this pandemic and becoming more prepared for another infectious disease outbreak in the future. It’s not just science that plays a role in pandemic response, it’s also social and behavioral programs and leadership that impacts the outcomes.
Robert Manduca, who made an extremely detailed map of job locations in the US back in 2014, recently published a paper with estimates for central business district employment for US metropolitan and micropolitan areas.
Manduca utilizes an algorithm to delineate CBDs as areas of contiguous job density. This creates a standardized calculation of downtowns that allows comparisons across regions. This is very useful because there is no standardized definition of downtowns.
You can download a spreadsheet with summary information about every MSA. In some cases, the largest employment area is suburban, so you’ll see the CBD classified as “suburb” in this case. (The spreadsheet is of the largest employment center in each metro).
The Figures below provide an update through October 5, 2020 to the relationship between county urban densities and COVID-19 death rates. The data continues to show a strong association between higher urban densities and death rates. The analysis approach and method are described in “Perspective: US Covid-19 Deaths and Urban Population Density.” See: Figure 1: “COVID-19 Death Rates by County Urban Density Category” and Figure 2: “Deaths Proportionate to Population” and Figure 3: “COVID-19 Death Rates by Urban Density.”
Join us October 17th for a live interactive webinar on how the middle class can survive and thrive during this time of social and economic uncertainty. The event will attempt to unpack the key challenges, economy, housing and family, that citizens face, yet aren't being addressed by our leaders. This event will bring you deeper insight around the issues, as well as an opportunity to connect with the speakers and other audience members, so that you can start bringing about change and greater opportunity in your community right away.
Hosted by Tom Piechota, Ph.D. PE, Vice President of Research, Chapman University
Panelists:
Michael Lind, Author of The New Class War, Professor at the University of Texas
Karla Lopez Del Rio, Community development professional and advocate for working families; Principal at Connexions Consulting
Pete Saunders, Author and researcher whose work focuses on urbanism and public policy
With:
Joel Kotkin, Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures, R. Hobbs Professorship in Urban Studies, School of Communication, Chapman University
Marshall Toplansky, MBA, Clinical Assistant Professor of Management Science at Chapman University’s Argyros School of Business and Economics, and Research Fellow at the C. Larry Hoag Center for Real Estate, Chapman University
On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by guests Harry and Fred Siegel. Fred is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. His son, Harry is a senior editor at the Daily Beast. Their conversation covers the future trends of cities, the workforce, and Manhattan. They begin by discussing how the work-from-home and pandemic crisis in New York have led landlords to write an open letter to New York Mayor, Bill de Blasio.
Fred and Harry discuss the migration from New York and how many people have left the city due to the coronavirus. New work-from-home policies for many companies. Both Fred and Harry and the hosts stress that migration from New York was happening long before the pandemic. There was a real estate crisis before the pandemic, but the pandemic amplified and sped up those situations. There are ways to turn this into an opportunity, Harry says by working to create a more breathable and affordable city that works for the people who actually live there.
Urbanists and policy makers Joel stresses, should be more focused on the mobility of businesses. Small business made New York interesting, these businesses have been bleeding with the cost of doing business. New York has been in crisis before, Fred explains that there has been a revival of the city, but Fred and Harry disagree with how the city comes back this time. As the episode ends, Joel asks Harry and Fred to list three things they believe would need to happen to begin reinventing New York. Harry stresses addressing cost of living, quality of life and quality of the school system. Fred lists sanitation, addressing homelessness and mental illness.
On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky welcome Jay Garner. Jay is CEO of Garner Economics as well as the Chair of the Site Selectors Guild. This episode explores the topic of site selection and how companies are choosing sites for their expansions. The group talks about how these types of decisions have been affected by the pandemic. Jay explains to listeners that the Site Selectors Guild are peer-selected location advisors that help facilitate location decisions of companies all over the world.
Joel asks Jay how site selection has changed during the pandemic. Jay explains that there was a pivot - He says, “...what we did pre-pandemic and what companies seem to be doing differently, with respect to different industry sectors - is changing significantly.” Jay explains information found in a survey or their membership that happened in April of 2020. About 49% of corporations surveyed said they were not continuing projects at that time. In June 2020, when the membership was surveyed again, there was an increase of global activity with companies moving forward with their projects. Another survey will be done in September.
Marshall talks about how he and Joel have researched future housing trends. He describes the trend of people moving out of expensive, big cities to more affordable and smaller cities. Marshall asks if Jay has seen a trend in projects in these areas. Jay explains that these were actually trends before the pandemic! Other than the price, another reason for this is that millennials are getting to the age where they want more space. He also says that public safety is very important to people.
The group talks about how remote work is affecting large companies. Jay talks specifically about remote work and productivity, cost, and how it is affecting employees’ creativity. Teamwork and creativity could be negatively affected by remote work. Jay says that long term, he thinks we will get back to working socially (depending on the status of therapeutics and a vaccine). The group talks about the potential changes in people after the pandemic.
Jay explains that most of his comments are his opinions, not necessarily that of the Site Selectors Guild.
The Figures below provide an update through September 13, 2020 to the relationship between county urban densities and COVID-19 death rates. The data continues to show a strong association between higher urban densities and death rates. The analysis approach and method are described in “Perspective: US Covid-19 Deaths and Urban Population Density.” See: Figure 1: “COVID-19 Death Rates by County Urban Density Category” and Figure 2: “Deaths Proportionate to Population” and Figure 3: “COVID-19 Death Rates by Urban Density.”
In this episode of the Feudal Future podcast, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by guests Jim Young and Kirstie Acevedo of Gensler, the largest design and architecture firm in the world. Their conversation covers the future trends and needs of office spaces and what kinds of issues employers are facing in our current world. They begin by discussing how wide-spread the redesigning of workspaces is as folks return to their offices. Jim explains that what companies are looking for the most in these times is flexibility. No one knows what tomorrow may bring, so agility and the willingness to try new things is paramount. Kirstie explains that Gensler bases their design on the science and needs of the client at all times, especially as the desire for safety takes top priority.
Many employees, even at Gensler are making the move to work from home; Jim and Kirstie believe that post-pandemic the workplace will evolve into a place to meet. Employees can come together to collaborate in offices, but continue working from home with increased regularity. Jim explains that they’re not seeing a move away from open collaborative office spaces, but rather a new focus on how to make those environments safer for everyone at work. They’re trying to balance the needs of social distancing alongside the decreased need for people to work 100% of their work time at work.
The episode wraps up with Jim and Kirstie sharing some of the ways offices are planning to reopen, including outdoor spaces, home offices, and digitally immersive workspaces. Kirstie emphasizes the shift towards a local mindset and how office communities can be part of buying, living, and creating locally. Jim expresses an optimism for the future, and what can be created in adversity and unknown times.
Infinite Suburbia is the culmination of the MIT Norman B. Leventhal Center for Advanced Urbanism's yearlong study of the future of suburban development. Find out more.
Authored by Aaron Renn, The Urban State of Mind: Meditations on the City is the first Urbanophile e-book, featuring provocative essays on the key issues facing our cities, including innovation, talent attraction and brain drain, global soft power, sustainability, economic development, and localism.
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